Post-traumatic risk assessment

The cost estimates change drastically following an accident. This is the black swan effect as described by Taleb  (2010, pp. 86-94, 171-173, 281-285).

Failure modes not considered in the original design are now in the focus. People are willing to pay for safety much more than before the accident. For example, before the Al-Qaeda  attack on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, it was unlikely that people would agree to the security means in airports applied today as described by Taleb  (2010, pp. 215-222).

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Updated on 05 May 2017.